Thus is my understanding of Egyptian politics thus far. After last month's "democratic" Presidential election, and now the Parliamentary elections which are taking place in phases, the infant democracy is taking its first baby steps. Of course the situation is not what I would expect from reading the textbooks of American democracy, nor is the rationale for what does actually take place here clearly within the realm of my understanding even after living here for several months and attempting to understand more about the culture.
Despite the clear majority rule of President Hosni Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP), the elections taking place this year are unique in terms of being the first democratic election in which outside political parties are able to participate. Though it was no surprise that Mubarak won re-election, voter turnout was at a "strong" 23%, and opposition candidates like Ayman Nour ran strongly in the polls--for a while it appeared that he even posed some legitimate "threat" to the long standing President.
A month later, Parliamentary elections have begun. On November 9, voters chose between about 1,500 candidates running for about 180 of the 444 elected seats in Egypt's People's Assembly. What's especially important about these elections is that only parties with at least 23 of the 44 elected seats in the People's Assembly will be able to bring a candidate to the next presidential election. A total of 14 political parties were represented in these elections:
National Democratic Party
National Front for Change (includes New Wafd, Nasirite, Al-Tajammu, Kifaya)
Muslim Brotherhood (as independents)
Al-Ghad Party
Socialist Liberal Party
Social Solidarity Party
Misr (Egypt) 2000 Party
Green Party
Free Social Constitutional Party
Democratic Union Party
Socialist Arab Egypt Party
National Reconciliation Party
Al-Jil (Generation) Party
IndependentsNational Democratic Party
National Front for Change (includes New Wafd, Nasirite, Al-Tajammu, Kifaya)
Muslim Brotherhood (as independents)
Al-Ghad Party
Socialist Liberal Party
Social Solidarity Party
Misr (Egypt) 2000 Party
Green Party
Free Social Constitutional Party
Democratic Union Party
Socialist Arab Egypt Party
National Reconciliation Party
Al-Jil (Generation) Party
Independents
After this week, the second phase of the Parliamentary elections have been completed. Thus far, several interesting developments have taken place:
1) Ayman Nour--Egypt's main opposition leader was ousted from his Parliamentary position. Despite his 10 year seat as the central Cairo district of Bab al-Sharia representative, this year he just didn't have any luck. Not that he "should have won" or "actually lost," considering the flimsiness of the elections. Many election observers have cited huge amounts of fraud and corruption in the election, and Nour's serving as a thorn in Mubarak's side over the past year certainly didn't boost his election campaign. Though Nour maintains that the seat is rightfully his, and that he is an innocent politician simply fighting a dictator in what's supposed to be a democratic election, after his presidential election loss, Nour was immediatley charged with forging documents concerning the legitimacy of his party's application papers, and is now re-facing these allegations (originally brought on prior to the elections, but suspended until they were over). What a surprise!
2) Emergence of support (and legitimacy?) of the Muslim Brotherhood--Though the Muslim Brotherhood, a well known Islamist political party throughout the Arab world, is officially banned from running in elections in Egypt, many of the party's candidates ran in the parliamentary elections as independents. Surprising to many though well predicted by others, many of the party's candidates fared well in this round of elections--a total of 47 seats thus far, with more seats up for grabs in run-off elections still taking place. What's curious about this whole affair, is that while likely the majority of middle and upper class Egyptians can't imagine a political takeover by "Islamists," it appears to be happening right before their eyes. Not that I myself am predicting this, but this is how political change takes place isn't it? And more so, it is taking place "democratically."
So who is supporting the Muslim Brotherhood then if not the middle and upper class, the people who tend to hold the most power in any country? Well--the voters! However, taking a look at the polling stations, one is much more likely to see a convulsing pushing swarm of poor Egyptians wearing galibayyas feigning some sort of poorly organized line rather than a keenly dressed young man or woman waiting to assert his democratic voice. The pool of voters in Egypt appears to be quite the opposite of what we may find in America. Rather than the more educated classes going to take part in the vote, the majority of voters in Egypt tend to be the lower suburban and rural classes. In fact in this election, only 12% of Cairenes made a showing--12%! Not even representative of the past month's total presidential election showing of 23%. The reason for this? Well, I can think of two. The first is that the majority of Egyptians who have an understanding of the political process in Egypt and its budding democracy have little faith in it. There is a huge amount of political apathy in this country, especially by those who see the real picture. Whether they vote or not, what is the difference? Business men with the largest bank accounts are still best friends with the thugs who pull the strings. Just because someone says you have freedom and human rights, it's probably just ink on the paper. Who is there to enforce it? When will the law be strong and respected enough that the lawmakers themselves are held subject to it? The ones who go actually go to vote don't necessarily have any more faith in the system than anyone else, but by going to the polling stations they are able to reap the short-term rewards from the campaigning politicians. In this election, for instance, millions of Egyptian pounds were handed out in exchange for votes, along with winter supplies, mobile phones, and promises to build hospitals, roads, schools, and other local projects in the villagers' respective districts. For many poor villagers this is the only way to get things done in their communities. And despite the fact that many outside organizations publicly noted this widespread corruption and bribery, there is no one to hold these officials accountable. Corruption in this country is not simply from the bottom up, something that can be changed by "fighting corruption," but rather the problem is systemic--embedded within the workings of the country so far that in order for it to change it would require an entire shift in not only the rules and regulations but also in the mindset and attitude of the culture as a whole.
3) Violence and arrests--Though the "democratization" of Egypt has thus far gone relatively quietly and peacefully (despite some public protests and demonstrations early on), following this round of elections came a bit of disturbing unrest. So far reports have cited a woman being shot in a polling station in Cairo, and a man was stabbed in the south. Additionally, just one day before additional run-off polls, 16 members of the Muslim Brotherhood were arrested by Egyptian police in Alexandria.
And the meaning of all of this? Well, democracy is a slow process, and aside from the general apathy of the majority of the public, for the first time in its history, Egyptians are at least to some degree taking part in the political process. Whether the country will likely see a continued move towards conservatism is truly in question. On the one hand, Islamists are gaining power in many regions of the world, and religious fundamentalism and even terrorism is showing its ugly face in more and more places. American foreign policy is just as unpopular as ever in the Middle East, and every day huge transformations are taking place: i.e. Jordan's terrorist bombings, Israel's PM Sharon's withdrawl from the Likud part to form a centrist platform, Palestine's ongoing struggle for recognized statehood and sovereignty, Sudan's embittered South and battles with Khartoum's desire for Shari'a law, etc. However, on the other hand, the majority of people, and the majority of Muslims, are not radicals--they wish to have a secular government that recognizes their culture as a more conservative and religious one, but a free one as well. They are sick and tired of violence and war, and are more concerned with solving problems such as the 20% unemployment rate (or higher) and making a better life for themselves and their families. Though it may be a slow process, democracy is desireable for most everyone, though here it is sure to be a la Egyptian style and on Egyptian time. But then again, when a culture has survived for over 7,000 years, people aren't too worried about the sun coming up yet another day--there is always time to get things done--eventually.
posted by Katie Warren @ 9:36 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home